Stagflasi, yaitu inflasi yang stagnan, sebuah istilah ekonomi, digunakan untuk menggambarkan fenomena di mana harga naik tetapi ekonomi mengalami stagnasi. Stagflasi talenta chip mengacu pada kenaikan biaya tenaga kerja, tetapi kualitas talenta belum meningkat.
Whether it is chip products or chip talents, they are a major factor in the market economy. According to Marx's determinism of supply and demand, prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. At present, the chip industry is booming, the talent market is in short supply, and labor costs are rising. But right now, labor costs are in a serious stagflation trend. High-paying poaching and frequent job-hopping have added a bucket of oil to the shortage of people.
Dengan pekerjaan terus-menerus-meloncat, gaji bisa naik dari 200,000 menjadi 400,000 menjadi 800,000 menjadi 1 juta dalam tiga tahun, dan posisi berkisar dari insinyur ke manajer ke direktur. Gaji naik, jabatan naik. Tetapi apakah kemampuan benar-benar secepat kenaikan gaji dan gelar? Pertumbuhan talenta industri yang stagnan perlu membuat kita berpikir.
Let's look at a set of data: the current annual salary of chip design engineers is between 600,000 and 1.2 million yuan, and the salary may increase by 20 percent to 50 percent when changing jobs; the current annual salary of verification engineers is between 600,000 and 1.5 million yuan, and the salary may be increased by 20 percent when changing jobs. percent -35 percent ; the current annual salary of the CPU/GPU leader is 1.5-6 million yuan, and the salary increase can reach 40 percent -50 percent after job-hopping.
Secara pribadi, peningkatan seperti itu sangat menarik, tetapi sebelum dan sesudah sering berpindah pekerjaan-, sebenarnya hanya perubahan perusahaan atau posisi yang lebih tinggi, dan kekuatan teknis pribadi tidak banyak berubah. Sejauh menyangkut industri, stagflasi biaya tenaga kerja memperburuk gesekan internal industri. Di permukaan, modal terbuang sia-sia. Faktanya, biaya waktu yang hilang, biaya peluang, dan kerugian tidak dapat diukur.
Siapa yang mengemudikan semua ini? Apa kekhawatiran tersembunyi di balik inflasi biaya tenaga kerja?
Alasan di balik stagflasi bakat
Di balik stagflasi biaya tenaga kerja chip, ada garis logika seperti itu: perkembangan pesat industri chip - masuknya modal dalam jumlah besar dengan cepat - perluasan skala industri, ledakan perusahaan baru - peningkatan permintaan akan talenta chip - ketidakseimbangan antara penawaran dan permintaan - menyebabkan gaji Kenaikan - tinggi-pembayaran perburuan { {7}} pekerjaan yang sering-melompati - stagflasi biaya tenaga kerja.
The serious imbalance between talent supply and demand is the most fundamental and fundamental reason. Let's first look at the demand side. According to the forecast of the China Semiconductor Association, the gap of Chinese chip professionals will exceed 250,000 in 2022, and by 2025, this gap will expand to 300,000. Domestic chip companies are growing rapidly. Taking the chip design field as an example, the number of domestic chip design companies will increase by 592 in 2021, with a growth rate of 26.7 percent . The number of enterprises with 100-500 employees increased by 91 over the previous year. The official caliber is like this, and there are rumors in the market that there are thousands of new chip design companies this year, and the demand side can be described as explosive growth.
Di sisi penawaran, bakat terutama datang ke perguruan tinggi dan universitas untuk pelatihan bakat. Data dari China Semi-Association menunjukkan bahwa pada tahun 2020, skala lulusan yang terkait dengan sirkuit terpadu di negara saya akan menjadi sekitar 210,000, terhitung sekitar 2,30 persen dari total jumlah lulusan. Di antara 210,000 siswa ini, hanya 13,77 persen yang terlibat dalam pekerjaan terkait sirkuit terpadu-setelah lulus, dan jumlahnya kurang dari 30,000. Bakat chip yang dikembangkan oleh perguruan tinggi dan universitas domestik sangat sedikit.
Kurangnya sisi pasokan membuat 541,000 karyawan yang ada berharga, tetapi pasar dasar ini tidak stabil. Di bawah bimbingan kebijakan nasional, industri semikonduktor berada di tengah panggung zaman dan telah menarik banyak perhatian dari modal. Valuasi dan pembiayaan yang tinggi, serta lahirnya Dewan Inovasi Sains dan Teknologi telah meningkatkan daya tawar perusahaan chip.
Under the requirements of rapid capital development and high returns, the phenomenon of labor cost stagflation has directly intensified. On the other hand, the high attention of capital has exacerbated the loss of chip talents. Many chip talents put down silicon wafers, put down EDA tools, and rush to invest. As a result, the most important thing in the semiconductor industry is investors. Therefore, there is a joke in the industry that "there are more semiconductor students in Lujiazui than Zhangjiang".
Karena pengaruh kebijakan di beberapa wilayah, akan sulit bagi kita untuk melihat kesempatan besar petinggi internasional membawa tim mereka ke daratan Tiongkok untuk memulai bisnis. Ternyata masih banyak perusahaan dalam negeri yang pergi ke Taiwan, China untuk mendirikan situs RD di luar negeri. Sekarang ketidakpastian situasi internasional dan campur tangan epidemi yang terus-menerus tidak hanya membuat pembangunan tim di luar negeri menjadi sia-sia, tetapi juga kemungkinan perburuan liar di luar negeri semakin rendah.
Due to the difficulty of poaching people, some companies have established larger HR teams and hired a number of headhunters to help them out. Some other industry giants have transformed and started the national core-making fever, including Internet companies, manufacturing companies, and mobile phone manufacturers. With strong funds, they began to "conquer" chip companies with high salaries and became the first person to boost involution. Headhunters swarmed, and "unscrupulous" poaching aggravated the rise in labor costs. There is such a joke in the industry: in Zhangjiang, Pudong, at the gate of a large chip design company, Zhangjiang men often hear strangers whispering in their ears, "Little brother, do you want to change jobs? Big brother, do you want to start a business?".
Under the indiscriminate bombardment of headhunters, it seems that the company has indeed recruited a few more people than before, but the talent pool has not grown significantly. It's just that there were only 3 people fishing, but now 100 people are fishing, and there are still a group of people behind you who are staring at your fish basket. The practice of headhunting and poaching made the engineers who were poached have a mentality: look, they are poaching people, the industry is so hot, there must be higher prices. Leveraging prices have therefore been raised again and again.
As the so-called "people die for wealth, birds die for food", the temptation of high salaries is really huge, and it is understandable that engineers can't stand it. However, another phenomenon is worth pondering: chip engineers who frequently change jobs are mostly from mainland China. The frequency of job-hopping of engineers and overseas engineers in Taiwan, China is relatively low, so they concentrate on research and development, make products, and develop better products with craftsmanship and accumulation over time, which enhances the competitiveness of overseas companies. Behind the stagflation of domestic chip talent, there may be the absence of an engineer culture. Frequent job-hopping makes it difficult to do things down-to-earth. Not only is it difficult to accumulate your own skills, but it will also make you restless, making it difficult to sit on the bench for ten years!
Kekhawatiran tersembunyi di balik stagflasi bakat
Keberhasilan tidak ada industri yang bergantung pada ketidakteraturan dan involusi. Tingkat involusi yang tinggi hanya akan mengurangi produktivitas industri. Stagflasi biaya tenaga kerja memiliki potensi efek destruktif pada industri semikonduktor, yang mempengaruhi perkembangan individu dan perusahaan secara kecil, dan mempengaruhi masa depan industri secara besar-besaran, yang tidak boleh diremehkan.
For individual chip engineers, frequent job-hopping is not conducive to personal career planning. Each job-hopping position is similar to the job, the only difference is the salary. Frequent job-hopping, personal ability and project practice ability have not been accumulated. It seems that the salary increased by tens of thousands in the initial stage, but in the long run, one's own ability, the item with the highest bargaining weight, is constantly being diluted. Without the accumulation and precipitation of technical ability, can the salary jump higher and higher after five or ten years?
Chip engineers have been poached, and most of the companies that entered before and after are doing similar projects, which also points out the stubborn disease of repetitive competition in the current industry. In the name of domestic substitution, many companies actually only "substitute domestic production" and repeatedly involute low-end products. This allows the chip talent to repeatedly grind on the same whetstone, and the good steel will not be used on the blade.
Dalam industri teknologi, bakat merupakan aset intelektual penting dari suatu perusahaan. Melihat rute pertumbuhan raksasa semikonduktor luar negeri, yang tidak dicapai oleh para insinyur yang duduk di bangku selama sepuluh tahun. Dari perspektif perusahaan, tingkat pergantian karyawan yang tinggi membuat sulit bagi perusahaan yang luar biasa untuk tumbuh. Di masa depan, kesulitan teknis industri semikonduktor akan menjadi lebih tinggi dan lebih tinggi. Ditambah dengan dampak friksi perdagangan, perkembangan semikonduktor dalam negeri pasti penuh duri. Tingkat turnover dan tingkat turnover yang tinggi hanya dapat menjadi katalis negatif, sulit bagi perusahaan unggulan domestik untuk tumbuh dengan cepat, dan daya saing internasional tidak mungkin untuk dibicarakan.
The industry will also fall into the vicious circle of "more and more expensive labor costs and slow growth in talent quality". It is only in practice that a person's technical ability improves. Frequent job-hopping not only makes chip engineers keep an eye on external recruitment trends, but also gets harassed by headhunters every day, distracting their energy, and job-hopping often makes the project at hand unsustainable. Even if a replacement is launched, it will cost a lot of time.
Beberapa hari yang lalu, sebuah perusahaan-permulaan mengunjungi. Pendiri memiliki pengalaman kerja di luar negeri. Dia terus terang mengakui bahwa insinyur Cina tidak hanya mahal, tetapi juga sangat mobile, dan kesenjangan antara kemampuan mereka dan insinyur luar negeri pada periode/usia yang sama semakin besar, dan biaya-efektifitas insinyur luar negeri semakin tinggi . Ada juga banyak chip start-up di luar negeri. Meskipun jumlah insinyur mungkin tidak sebesar daratan, skala personel tidak sebesar daratan, tetapi daya saingnya sangat kuat.
Kesimpulan
Semiconductor technology is the most primitive and the most tiring work. It is gratifying that the whole society attaches great importance to chip talents. As a powerful country in science and technology, chips are the foundation of the digital economy. We are almost devoted to the development of the chip industry. "The iron has to be hard on its own." There will always be foggy moments along the way. Only with more mutual understanding and less introversion in the industry can we maximize time and cost savings, accumulate industrial experience, accumulate talent soft power, and jointly write a bright future.